Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
