Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
